By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman
For the Blues, it’s a new season with the same problem: Too many talented young forwards to rebuild, and too many aging, overpaid defensemen to contend.
It’s not an enviable situation for general manager and president of hockey operations Doug Armstrong — though it is, indeed, one he’s created for himself.
If nothing else, though, the summer brought a bit of clarity to the team’s retooling plan. St. Louis is refusing to punt on the present while also attempting to improve down the line. In other words, refusing to choose a lane is a feature, not a bug.
The projection
Before 2022-23, we expected the Blues to be a 92-point team. They earned 81 points instead, and it felt like their time as a playoff team was over. That led to an 80-point forecast going into 2023-24, and while the Blues did miss the playoffs, it wasn’t by much after earning 92 points.
They had a better record than expected but one that felt like a mirage. St. Louis being bottom three in expected goals percentage at five-on-five during a career year from Jordan Binnington probably isn’t a recipe for sustainable success.
Advertisement
Going into 2024-25, the model is doubling down on the Blues not having much of a playoff shot. Their projection lands right around 82 points, with a 1-in-10 chance of making the postseason.
Some may feel like the Blues are being underestimated here, but it’s difficult to be enamored with a team that had so much going right last season — and only earned 92 points.
It’s not impossible, but the Blues look like they’ll be hard-pressed to find success in the West.
The big question
What can Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway bring to the table in bigger roles?
First things first: St. Louis deserves plenty of credit for tossing a pair of mid-August offer sheets at Holloway and Broberg, formerly of the Edmonton Oilers, and getting them to bite. There’s no more barren stretch of the NHL calendar, and some of us had podcasts to record. Somebody poaching not one relevant young player from a cap-strapped Cup finalist, but two? Content bonanza, baby!
Now that the dust has settled, it’s worth taking stock of just what the Blues have added to the mix. Are Holloway and Broberg interesting, relevant acquisitions in the grand scheme, or did it just seem that way during the depths of the offseason?
We’re going with a little from Column A, a little from Column B.
Holloway, signed for two years at a $2.29 million cap hit, cost the Blues a compensatory third-round pick. A 22-year-old first-round pick in 2020, he’s the safer of St. Louis’ bets, owing mainly to a relatively low price tag, both in terms of salary and draft compensation. At various points during the last two seasons, he looked like a solid piece in the Oilers’ bottom six for one primary reason: He’s fast. The ability to effectively chase down pucks in the offensive zone counts for something. He also can knock in the odd goal, which he showed during the postseason — five in 25 playoff games counts for something, too.
In Holloway, St. Louis has a cost-effective third- or fourth-line option. The model projects him to return an average of $1.8 million in surplus value. His age, skating ability and shot could potentially help him play on a second line, but even if he’s a finished project, he’s going to add some value to a lineup.
Broberg is the more interesting case. A first-round pick in 2021 (No. 8), he was viewed by many as a relative lock to play in a top four as recently as 2023, when Corey Pronman ranked him as the Oilers’ top prospect and Scott Wheeler had him at No. 45 in the league. Defensemen with his frame (6-foot-4, 212 pounds) and athleticism are relatively rare — and, in most cases, worth the risk.
His NHL track record, though, is relatively thin for a reason: He couldn’t beat out Vincent Desharnais for a lineup spot last season and spent most of his time playing for Edmonton’s AHL affiliate. He popped a bit during the playoffs, scoring twice in 10 games and helping the Oilers win his minutes 6-2 — albeit with abysmal expected-goal numbers — and generally looking the part of a smooth puck-mover with high-end skating ability.
His issue, of course, is one of sample size and competition. It’s one thing to look good for a handful of games against third- and fourth-liners; it’s something else entirely to make it happen every night on a second pair. That’s exactly what the Blues signed him to do, at a cost of $4.58 million annually and a second-round pick sent back to the Oilers. Ultimately, though, he has skill worth gambling on, even though the model doesn’t agree, and the Blues certainly have a glaring need for change in their defensive group.
Now, is either player likely to make the Blues into a playoff squad? Nope. They make the Blues a little better today, though, and perhaps a little more down the line. Quibble with the principle all you want — there’s plenty of evidence to support that side. If nothing else, St. Louis found some players who fit the parameters of its search. Credit where it’s due.
Advertisement
The wild card
Can Jake Neighbours grow into an everyday top-line player?
Neighbours earned an expanded role last season and became more of a mainstay in the top six. Now he has to prove that the 27 goals and 38 points he scored weren’t a fluke but a sample of what’s to come consistently.
On the surface, Neighbours looked like he had the chops to play meaningful minutes last season. And he was a welcome addition to the top six, considering how little supporting talent Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich and Jordan Kyrou have had in the past couple of seasons. But digging deeper raises some red flags on whether Neighbours’ production is sustainable.
Shooting 18.6 percent probably isn’t a recipe for long-term success. Neighbours has to prove his scoring wasn’t just a result of a hot streak and he can still be a reliable source of production if (or when) it regresses. One encouraging sign is that his shot quality added up to about 25 expected goals in all situations. But there is still work to do at five-on-five.
Neighbours’ primary role was getting to the scoring areas and converting on his chances — and that’s an important one in St. Louis, considering some of their pass-first players. But there is room for improvement, whether it’s pumping up his shot volume or trying to enter the zone more with possession instead of chipping the puck in. If Neighbours can be more active in the Blues’ offense, it could help balance out some of the areas in his own zone that need development. He enters the season as one of St. Louis’ weakest defensive forwards, which is the biggest risk of his increased responsibility at the top of the lineup.
Can he handle the heat?
The strengths
Whether or not you believe the Blues are a potential playoff team this season depends largely on whether or not you believe they can get elite goaltending from Binnington and Joel Hofer again.
We’re expecting something closer to average — a combined Net Rating of plus-three, which ranks 14th and is a big change from where the duo was last season.
Advertisement
The Blues managed 92 points, which can be pinned almost exclusively on the Herculean efforts of their two netminders. St. Louis ranked third in goals saved above expected — 29 more than an average team. That’s the exact difference between where the team currently stands and where it needs to be for a 50-50 shot for the playoffs.
That’s not to say Binnington and Hofer can’t repeat. It’s just a matter of whether St. Louis can rely on it happening. Binnington was amazing last season, finishing second behind Connor Hellebuyck in goals saved above expected. But he was also 15th-worst in the stat the season prior. His lack of consistency makes him difficult to depend on. The Blues getting the good or bad version of Binnington could be the difference between fighting for a playoff spot and fighting for a lottery spot.
If it is the latter, the possibility Hofer can step in, steal starts and raise St. Louis’ floor can’t be ignored. He was terrific last season. He just doesn’t have a long track record at the NHL level. He’s rated as one of the league’s better backup goalies, and more starts would only increase his standing.
Beyond the goalies, St. Louis’ biggest strength is its three star forwards: Thomas, Kyrou and Buchnevich. They may not be franchise talents, but they are significant needle-movers who give the Blues a chance to win every night.
Thomas is the closest to approaching that franchise-player barrier, and another season like the one he just had may put him in that tier. No forward played tougher minutes than Thomas last season, and he still managed 86 points and 58 percent of expected goals, both of which led the Blues by a considerable amount. Thomas is one of the league’s very best passers and last season added more shot volume to his repertoire, making him even more dangerous. He does a lot of work in transition, too, carrying the puck up ice with extreme efficiency. Look for him at the top of every “most underrated” list this season.
Often on his wing is Kyrou, another dynamic player with the puck who showed an elite penchant for creating chances last season. According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder, Kyrou’s 14.2 chance contributions per 60 minutes ranked fourth in the league. If that continues, an increase from his 67 points in 2023-24 should be on the menu.
Perhaps more promising for Kyrou was his commitment to better play without the puck. That manifested in the Blues allowing 0.26 fewer expected goals against per 60 with him on the ice, a career-best mark and a massive swing from where he was previously. Keeping that up and turning the Blues’ top line into one carrying significant substance beyond its point production will go a long way toward making this team competitive.
Advertisement
Buchnevich has long been that kind of player, but last season he did see a dip in his production to 63 points after pacing for 86 points over the prior two seasons. With his underlying metrics staying steady and his tracked data still looking strong, expect a bounce back in that department.
On defense, having Broberg on the second pair with Justin Faulk should help the offense, as well. The two grade out well in that department and are St. Louis’ best options for attacking from the back end.
The weaknesses
St. Louis’s biggest issue continues to be its outclassed top pair: Colton Parayko and Nick Leddy. The duo currently grade out as a bottom-three top pairing in the league, a product of losing matchups decisively night in and night out. That was true last season, when they earned 44 percent of expected goals and were outscored 54-49, and it was also true the year before with 45 percent of the expected goals while being outscored 47-35. This pair gets caved in annually.
Part of the reason is they soak up the Blues’ most difficult matchups. which is something the model accounts for better now. But that’s not enough to save this pair. The issue is that for the pair to salvage things defensively, it has to abandon any semblance of offense. For Parayko, in particular, the lack of offensive play-driving is what keeps his value closer to a second-pair defender rather than a legitimate top-pair option.
Given the burden Parayko faces and the fact he still grades out as a strong puck-mover, the issue is more than likely a result of playing with Leddy. In that vein, Parayko’s expected goals rate playing with Thomas and without Leddy on the ice last season was 52.5 percent, a nine percent increase. It’s a small sample but a notable one, given the players involved. Leddy’s days in the top four should have been numbered long ago.
Leddy can’t push the pace offensively the way he used to, putting more pressure on Parayko to deliver with the puck. With a better partner who can get things done offensively, it’s possible Parayko’s value could rebound closer to what it used to be.
That player could very well be Broberg. The question is whether he can handle such a heavy role. His minus-five Defensive Rating is a product of struggling mightily without the puck. There was a reason he was so heavily sheltered in Edmonton. The onus is on Broberg to prove he can be an everyday top-four defender. The Blues certainly made a big bet that he could.
Advertisement
Aside from the perennial issues on defense, the Blues also have a depth problem up front. The team’s stars look fairly strong, but the rest of the lineup seriously underwhelms.
The issue here mainly comes down to how players fare without the puck. Maybe they’d look better in front of a stronger blue line, but the team’s forwards seem to exacerbate the issue. With a combined minus-11 Defensive Rating, St. Louis’s forwards rank fourth-last in defensive value, ahead of only the Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks. That’s not good company and creates an uphill climb where it becomes harder to generate offense and win matchups when the team is hemmed in, giving up a barrage of Grade-A chances.
The team’s stars have figured out the equation well, but the rest are lacking. It leaves Brayden Schenn and Brandon Saad outclassed on the second line, especially now that they’re run-of-the-mill 45-point scorers. Neither does enough offensively these days to make up for what they give up. That extends down the lineup, too, namely with the addition of Alexandre Texier. He was a big contributor to Columbus’ defensive weakness last season — on the ice for 3.3 expected goals against per 60, 0.3 more than his teammates. He has the potential to be a serious liability if he plays in St. Louis’ top nine. Neighbours has the tools to be a key piece after scoring 27 goals last season, but he suffers from the same issues without the puck.
A full training camp and season under Drew Bannister may sort these issues out, but it may also come at an offensive cost. Last season the Blues allowed 0.23 fewer expected goals against per 60 with Bannister behind the bench — but also saw their expected goals percentage drop from 47 percent to 44 percent.
While there are some real bright spots in St. Louis, there are simply too many weak links in the lineup to consider the Blues anywhere close to a good playoff bet.
The best case
Binnington has another career year, the star forwards shine brighter than ever before and the Blues get some unexpected breakouts from younger players, putting them right in the playoff mix.
That, or the wheels fall completely off, they net the first pick and shoot right back into the playoffs next season.
Advertisement
The worst case
A listless and blah campaign in which the Blues trade wins and losses in a relatively uneventful fashion, featuring little in the way of internal growth. It’s a slog to the league’s mushy middle that all but guarantees another year in purgatory.
The bottom line
Despite the presence of some solid individual talents and the theoretical possibility of another playoff push, the Blues’ most likely outcome is one that’ll frustrate the fanbase. If that happens, maybe they’ll finally choose a lane and stick with it.
References
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.
(Photo of Jake Neighbours: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
